Bologna vs Como prediction — 2027-02-14

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Serie A · Regular Season - 24 · 2027-02-14 17:30 UTC

BolognaTeam strength 1701.3 · projected league finish #9

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Como

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

ComoTeam strength 1760 · projected league finish #6

Bologna wins 34.6%Draw — neither team wins 28.5%Como wins 36.9%Average simulated goals 1.37–1.42

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Como have the highest number? Como currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Bologna playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.37for Bologna and 1.42 for Como. That makes Como the highest of the three result estimates at 36.9%. For the full league season, Bologna is projected to earn about 56points and Como about 63. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Bologna a 34.6% chance of beating Como at home in the Serie A on 2027-02-14, with 28.5% for the draw and 36.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.37–1.42; the chance of both teams scoring is 58.0% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	7.2	6.2	2.9	1.0	0.4
1	6.9	13.5	8.5	4.0	1.4	0.5
2	5.8	8.2	5.8	2.7	1.0	0.4
3	2.6	3.7	2.6	1.2	0.4	0.2
4	0.9	1.3	0.9	0.4	0.2	0.1
5+	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%1–2 8.5%2–1 8.2%0–0 7.8%0–1 7.2%1–0 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		58.0%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Bologna avoids defeat		63.1%
Como avoids defeat		65.4%
Bologna allows no goals		24.3%
Como allows no goals		25.5%