Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano prediction — 2027-05-30

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La Liga · Regular Season - 38 · 2027-05-30 15:00 UTC

BilbaoTeam strength 1677.9 · projected league finish #9

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Bilbao

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)

Rayo VallecanoTeam strength 1707.3 · projected league finish #6

Bilbao wins 38.0%Draw — neither team wins 28.5%Rayo Vallecano wins 33.6%Average simulated goals 1.44–1.34

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Bilbao have the highest number? Rayo Vallecano currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Bilbao playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.44for Bilbao and 1.34 for Rayo Vallecano. That makes Bilbao the highest of the three result estimates at 38.0%. For the full league season, Bilbao is projected to earn about 51points and Rayo Vallecano about 55. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Bilbao a 38.0% chance of beating Rayo Vallecano at home in the La Liga on 2027-05-30, with 28.5% for the draw and 33.6% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.44–1.34; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.8	6.8	5.6	2.5	0.8	0.3
1	7.4	13.5	8.0	3.6	1.2	0.4
2	6.4	8.6	5.8	2.6	0.9	0.3
3	3.1	4.1	2.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.1	1.5	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.5%2–1 8.6%1–2 8.0%0–0 7.8%1–0 7.4%0–1 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.9%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Bilbao avoids defeat		66.4%
Rayo Vallecano avoids defeat		62.0%
Bilbao allows no goals		26.1%
Rayo Vallecano allows no goals		23.7%