Home › Predictions › Bilbao vs Malaga
La Liga · Regular Season - 35 · 2027-05-09 15:00 UTC
Bilbao
MalagaThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Bilbao have the highest number? Bilbao currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Bilbao playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.79for Bilbao and 1.00 for Malaga. That makes Bilbao the highest of the three result estimates at 54.5%. For the full league season, Bilbao is projected to earn about 51points and Malaga about 37. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Bilbao a 54.5% chance of beating Malaga at home in the La Liga on 2027-05-09, with 26.1% for the draw and 19.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.79–1.00; the chance of both teams scoring is 53.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.0% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Bilbao avoids defeat | 80.5% | |
| Malaga avoids defeat | 45.5% | |
| Bilbao allows no goals | 37.0% | |
| Malaga allows no goals | 16.8% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
