Home › Predictions › Bilbao vs Elche
La Liga · Regular Season - 5 · 2026-09-13 15:00 UTC
Bilbao
ElcheThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Bilbao have the highest number? Bilbao currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Bilbao playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.65for Bilbao and 1.13 for Elche. That makes Bilbao the highest of the three result estimates at 47.9%. For the full league season, Bilbao is projected to earn about 51points and Elche about 44. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Bilbao a 47.9% chance of beating Elche at home in the La Liga on 2026-09-13, with 27.4% for the draw and 24.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.1%), with average simulated goals of 1.65–1.13; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.2% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Bilbao avoids defeat | 75.3% | |
| Elche avoids defeat | 52.1% | |
| Bilbao allows no goals | 32.2% | |
| Elche allows no goals | 19.2% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
