Home › Predictions › Bayern vs Werder
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 14 · 2026-12-19 14:30 UTC · Allianz Arena, Munich
Bayern
WerderThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Bayern have the highest number? Bayern currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Bayern playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.50for Bayern and 0.30 for Werder. That makes Bayern the highest of the three result estimates at 84.8%. For the full league season, Bayern is projected to earn about 82points and Werder about 39. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Bayern a 84.8% chance of beating Werder at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-12-19, with 12.8% for the draw and 2.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (19.0%), with average simulated goals of 2.50–0.30; the chance of both teams scoring is 24.4% and of three or more total goals 53.0%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 19.0 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 15.9 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 8.0 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 24.4% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.5% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 53.0% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.7% | |
| Bayern avoids defeat | 97.6% | |
| Werder avoids defeat | 15.2% | |
| Bayern allows no goals | 74.1% | |
| Werder allows no goals | 8.2% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
