Bayern vs Elversberg prediction — 2027-02-06

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 20 · 2027-02-06 14:30 UTC · Allianz Arena, Munich

BayernTeam strength 2000.9 · projected league finish #1

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Bayern

single most likely score: 2–0 (18.2%)

ElversbergTeam strength 1523.4 · projected league finish #17

Bayern wins 87.1%Draw — neither team wins 10.9%Elversberg wins 2.0%Average simulated goals 2.71–0.30

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Bayern have the highest number? Bayern currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Bayern playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.71for Bayern and 0.30 for Elversberg. That makes Bayern the highest of the three result estimates at 87.1%. For the full league season, Bayern is projected to earn about 82points and Elversberg about 30. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Bayern a 87.1% chance of beating Elversberg at home in the Bundesliga on 2027-02-06, with 10.9% for the draw and 2.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (18.2%), with average simulated goals of 2.71–0.30; the chance of both teams scoring is 24.7% and of three or more total goals 57.7%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3
0	5.5	1.0	0.2	0.0
1	12.9	4.5	0.6	0.1
2	18.2	5.4	0.8	0.1
3	16.4	4.9	0.7	0.1
4	11.1	3.3	0.5	0.0
5+	10.1	3.0	0.5	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 18.2%3–0 16.4%1–0 12.9%4–0 11.1%5–0 10.1%0–0 5.5%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		24.7%
2 or more total goals		80.7%
3 or more total goals		57.7%
4 or more total goals		35.3%
Bayern avoids defeat		98.0%
Elversberg avoids defeat		12.9%
Bayern allows no goals		74.1%
Elversberg allows no goals		6.7%