Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction — 2026-10-25

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La Liga · Regular Season - 10 · 2026-10-25 16:00 UTC · Camp Nou, Barcelona

BarcelonaTeam strength 1951.6 · projected league finish #1

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Barcelona

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.3%)

Real MadridTeam strength 1922.9 · projected league finish #2

Barcelona wins 44.8%Draw — neither team wins 27.9%Real Madrid wins 27.3%Average simulated goals 1.58–1.20

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Barcelona have the highest number? Barcelona currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Barcelona playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.58for Barcelona and 1.20 for Real Madrid. That makes Barcelona the highest of the three result estimates at 44.8%. For the full league season, Barcelona is projected to earn about 86points and Real Madrid about 82. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Barcelona a 44.8% chance of beating Real Madrid at home in the La Liga on 2026-10-25, with 27.9% for the draw and 27.3% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 1.58–1.20; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.0% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.9	4.4	1.8	0.5	0.2
1	8.3	13.3	7.0	2.8	0.8	0.2
2	7.8	9.3	5.6	2.2	0.7	0.2
3	4.1	4.9	2.9	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.6	1.9	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.7	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.3%2–1 9.3%1–0 8.3%2–0 7.8%0–0 7.7%1–2 7.0%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.0%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Barcelona avoids defeat		72.7%
Real Madrid avoids defeat		55.2%
Barcelona allows no goals		30.2%
Real Madrid allows no goals		20.5%