Home › Predictions › Barcelona vs Bilbao
La Liga · Regular Season - 1 · 2026-08-16 15:00 UTC · Camp Nou, Barcelona
Barcelona
BilbaoThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Barcelona have the highest number? Barcelona currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Barcelona playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.20for Barcelona and 0.58 for Bilbao. That makes Barcelona the highest of the three result estimates at 73.4%. For the full league season, Barcelona is projected to earn about 86points and Bilbao about 51. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Barcelona a 73.4% chance of beating Bilbao at home in the La Liga on 2026-08-16, with 19.2% for the draw and 7.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (15.0%), with average simulated goals of 2.20–0.58; the chance of both teams scoring is 40.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 40.4% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.6% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Barcelona avoids defeat | 92.6% | |
| Bilbao avoids defeat | 26.6% | |
| Barcelona allows no goals | 55.7% | |
| Bilbao allows no goals | 11.1% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
