Augsburg vs Leverkusen prediction — 2026-09-12

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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 3 · 2026-09-12 13:30 UTC · WWK Arena, Augsburg

AugsburgTeam strength 1636.4 · projected league finish #11

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Leverkusen

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.9%)

LeverkusenTeam strength 1804 · projected league finish #3

Augsburg wins 23.1%Draw — neither team wins 27.1%Leverkusen wins 49.8%Average simulated goals 1.09–1.69

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Leverkusen have the highest number? Leverkusen currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Augsburg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.09for Augsburg and 1.69 for Leverkusen. That makes Leverkusen the highest of the three result estimates at 49.8%. For the full league season, Augsburg is projected to earn about 43points and Leverkusen about 62. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Augsburg a 23.1% chance of beating Leverkusen at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-09-12, with 27.1% for the draw and 49.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.9%), with average simulated goals of 1.09–1.69; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	9.0	8.8	5.0	2.1	1.0
1	5.3	12.9	9.7	5.4	2.3	1.1
2	3.7	6.3	5.3	3.0	1.3	0.6
3	1.4	2.3	1.9	1.1	0.5	0.2
4	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.9%1–2 9.7%0–1 9.0%0–2 8.8%0–0 7.7%2–1 6.3%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		55.7%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Augsburg avoids defeat		50.2%
Leverkusen avoids defeat		76.9%
Augsburg allows no goals		18.5%
Leverkusen allows no goals		33.5%