Home › Predictions › Augsburg vs Bayern
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5 · 2026-10-10 13:30 UTC · WWK Arena, Augsburg
Augsburg
BayernThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Bayern have the highest number? Bayern currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Augsburg playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.60for Augsburg and 2.18 for Bayern. That makes Bayern the highest of the three result estimates at 72.7%. For the full league season, Augsburg is projected to earn about 43points and Bayern about 82. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Augsburg a 7.8% chance of beating Bayern at home in the Bundesliga on 2026-10-10, with 19.5% for the draw and 72.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 0–2 (14.7%), with average simulated goals of 0.60–2.18; the chance of both teams scoring is 41.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.5 | 14.7 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 3.8 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 41.1% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.6% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Augsburg avoids defeat | 27.3% | |
| Bayern avoids defeat | 92.2% | |
| Augsburg allows no goals | 11.3% | |
| Bayern allows no goals | 54.8% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
