Atletico vs Real Madrid prediction — 2026-09-20

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La Liga · Regular Season - 7 · 2026-09-20 15:00 UTC · Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid

AtleticoTeam strength 1827.7 · projected league finish #3

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Real Madrid

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.4%)

Real MadridTeam strength 1922.9 · projected league finish #2

Atletico wins 30.6%Draw — neither team wins 28.3%Real Madrid wins 41.1%Average simulated goals 1.27–1.51

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Real Madrid have the highest number? Real Madrid currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Atletico playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.27for Atletico and 1.51 for Real Madrid. That makes Real Madrid the highest of the three result estimates at 41.1%. For the full league season, Atletico is projected to earn about 71points and Real Madrid about 82. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Atletico a 30.6% chance of beating Real Madrid at home in the La Liga on 2026-09-20, with 28.3% for the draw and 41.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.4%), with average simulated goals of 1.27–1.51; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	7.8	7.0	3.5	1.3	0.5
1	6.4	13.4	9.0	4.5	1.7	0.7
2	5.0	7.6	5.7	2.9	1.1	0.4
3	2.1	3.2	2.4	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.7	1.0	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.4%1–2 9.0%0–1 7.8%0–0 7.7%2–1 7.6%0–2 7.0%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.6%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Atletico avoids defeat		58.9%
Real Madrid avoids defeat		69.4%
Atletico allows no goals		22.2%
Real Madrid allows no goals		28.0%