Home › Predictions › Atletico vs Barcelona
La Liga · Regular Season - 12 · 2026-11-08 16:00 UTC · Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
Atletico
BarcelonaThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Barcelona have the highest number? Barcelona currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Atletico playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.20for Atletico and 1.58 for Barcelona. That makes Barcelona the highest of the three result estimates at 44.5%. For the full league season, Atletico is projected to earn about 71points and Barcelona about 86. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Atletico a 27.5% chance of beating Barcelona at home in the La Liga on 2026-11-08, with 27.9% for the draw and 44.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 1.20–1.58; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Atletico avoids defeat | 55.5% | |
| Barcelona avoids defeat | 72.5% | |
| Atletico allows no goals | 20.6% | |
| Barcelona allows no goals | 30.0% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
