Atalanta vs Fiorentina prediction — 2027-01-31

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Serie A · Regular Season - 22 · 2027-01-31 17:30 UTC · New Balance Arena, Bergamo

AtalantaTeam strength 1763.5 · projected league finish #5

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Atalanta

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.7%)

FiorentinaTeam strength 1670.2 · projected league finish #10

Atalanta wins 52.6%Draw — neither team wins 26.5%Fiorentina wins 20.9%Average simulated goals 1.75–1.04

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Atalanta have the highest number? Atalanta currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Atalanta playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.75for Atalanta and 1.04 for Fiorentina. That makes Atalanta the highest of the three result estimates at 52.6%. For the full league season, Atalanta is projected to earn about 64points and Fiorentina about 51. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Atalanta a 52.6% chance of beating Fiorentina at home in the Serie A on 2027-01-31, with 26.5% for the draw and 20.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.7%), with average simulated goals of 1.75–1.04; the chance of both teams scoring is 54.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.0	3.3	1.1	0.3	0.1
1	9.4	12.7	5.8	2.0	0.5	0.1
2	9.4	9.8	5.1	1.7	0.5	0.1
3	5.5	5.7	2.9	1.0	0.3	0.1
4	2.4	2.5	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.2	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.7%2–1 9.8%2–0 9.4%1–0 9.4%0–0 7.7%1–2 5.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		54.7%
2 or more total goals		78.0%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Atalanta avoids defeat		79.1%
Fiorentina avoids defeat		47.4%
Atalanta allows no goals		35.5%
Fiorentina allows no goals		17.5%