Arsenal vs Man United prediction — 2026-12-19

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Premier League · Regular Season - 16 · 2026-12-19 15:00 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London

ArsenalTeam strength 2063.8 · projected league finish #1

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Arsenal

single most likely score: 1–1 (11.8%)

Man UnitedTeam strength 1915.3 · projected league finish #4

Arsenal wins 59.2%Draw — neither team wins 24.8%Man United wins 16.1%Average simulated goals 1.88–0.90

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Arsenal have the highest number? Arsenal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Arsenal playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.88for Arsenal and 0.90 for Man United. That makes Arsenal the highest of the three result estimates at 59.2%. For the full league season, Arsenal is projected to earn about 83points and Man United about 65. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Arsenal a 59.2% chance of beating Man United at home in the Premier League on 2026-12-19, with 24.8% for the draw and 16.1% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.8%), with average simulated goals of 1.88–0.90; the chance of both teams scoring is 51.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	4.2	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.0
1	10.3	11.8	4.7	1.4	0.3	0.1
2	11.0	9.9	4.4	1.3	0.3	0.1
3	6.9	6.2	2.8	0.8	0.2	0.0
4	3.3	2.9	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	1.7	1.6	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 11.8%2–0 11.0%1–0 10.3%2–1 9.9%0–0 7.6%3–0 6.9%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		51.6%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Arsenal avoids defeat		83.9%
Man United avoids defeat		40.8%
Arsenal allows no goals		40.8%
Man United allows no goals		15.2%