Arsenal vs Crystal Palace prediction — 2027-03-03

Home › Predictions › Arsenal vs Crystal Palace

Premier League · Regular Season - 28 · 2027-03-03 20:00 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London

ArsenalTeam strength 2063.8 · projected league finish #1

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Arsenal

single most likely score: 2–0 (14.5%)

Crystal PalaceTeam strength 1803.8 · projected league finish #14

Arsenal wins 72.0%Draw — neither team wins 19.9%Crystal Palace wins 8.2%Average simulated goals 2.16–0.62

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Arsenal have the highest number? Arsenal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Arsenal playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.16for Arsenal and 0.62 for Crystal Palace. That makes Arsenal the highest of the three result estimates at 72.0%. For the full league season, Arsenal is projected to earn about 83points and Crystal Palace about 50. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Arsenal a 72.0% chance of beating Crystal Palace at home in the Premier League on 2027-03-03, with 19.9% for the draw and 8.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (14.5%), with average simulated goals of 2.16–0.62; the chance of both teams scoring is 41.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3	2.8	1.2	0.2	0.0
1	12.3	9.4	2.6	0.5	0.1
2	14.5	9.0	2.8	0.6	0.1
3	10.4	6.5	2.0	0.4	0.1
4	5.6	3.5	1.1	0.2	0.0
5+	3.7	2.3	0.7	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 14.5%1–0 12.3%3–0 10.4%1–1 9.4%2–1 9.0%0–0 7.3%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		41.9%
2 or more total goals		77.6%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Arsenal avoids defeat		91.8%
Crystal Palace avoids defeat		28.0%
Arsenal allows no goals		53.9%
Crystal Palace allows no goals		11.5%