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Premier League · Regular Season - 38 · 2027-05-30 15:00 UTC · Emirates Stadium, London
Arsenal
BrightonThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Arsenal have the highest number? Arsenal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Arsenal playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.07for Arsenal and 0.71 for Brighton. That makes Arsenal the highest of the three result estimates at 67.7%. For the full league season, Arsenal is projected to earn about 83points and Brighton about 55. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Arsenal a 67.7% chance of beating Brighton at home in the Premier League on 2027-05-30, with 21.7% for the draw and 10.6% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 2.07–0.71; the chance of both teams scoring is 45.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 77.8% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Arsenal avoids defeat | 89.4% | |
| Brighton avoids defeat | 32.3% | |
| Arsenal allows no goals | 49.0% | |
| Brighton allows no goals | 12.7% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
