Alaves vs Villarreal prediction — 2026-08-30

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La Liga · Regular Season - 3 · 2026-08-30 15:00 UTC · Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

AlavesTeam strength 1635 · projected league finish #14

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Villarreal

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.3%)

VillarrealTeam strength 1759.3 · projected league finish #4

Alaves wins 27.5%Draw — neither team wins 27.9%Villarreal wins 44.6%Average simulated goals 1.20–1.58

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Villarreal have the highest number? Villarreal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Alaves playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.20for Alaves and 1.58 for Villarreal. That makes Villarreal the highest of the three result estimates at 44.6%. For the full league season, Alaves is projected to earn about 45points and Villarreal about 61. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Alaves a 27.5% chance of beating Villarreal at home in the La Liga on 2026-08-30, with 27.9% for the draw and 44.6% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 1.20–1.58; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.0% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	8.3	7.7	4.1	1.6	0.7
1	5.9	13.3	9.3	4.9	1.9	0.8
2	4.5	7.1	5.6	2.9	1.2	0.5
3	1.8	2.8	2.2	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.5	0.9	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.3%1–2 9.3%0–1 8.3%0–2 7.7%0–0 7.7%2–1 7.1%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		57.0%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Alaves avoids defeat		55.4%
Villarreal avoids defeat		72.5%
Alaves allows no goals		20.6%
Villarreal allows no goals		30.1%