Home › Predictions › Alaves vs Osasuna
La Liga · Regular Season - 4 · 2026-09-06 15:00 UTC · Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Alaves
OsasunaThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Alaves have the highest number? Osasuna currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Alaves playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.47for Alaves and 1.31 for Osasuna. That makes Alaves the highest of the three result estimates at 39.6%. For the full league season, Alaves is projected to earn about 45points and Osasuna about 47. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Alaves a 39.6% chance of beating Osasuna at home in the La Liga on 2026-09-06, with 28.4% for the draw and 32.0% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.47–1.31; the chance of both teams scoring is 57.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 13.5 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Alaves avoids defeat | 68.0% | |
| Osasuna avoids defeat | 60.4% | |
| Alaves allows no goals | 27.1% | |
| Osasuna allows no goals | 22.9% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
