Home › Predictions › Alaves vs Atletico
La Liga · Regular Season - 8 · 2026-10-11 15:00 UTC · Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Alaves
AtleticoThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Atletico have the highest number? Atletico currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Alaves playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.03for Alaves and 1.75 for Atletico. That makes Atletico the highest of the three result estimates at 52.8%. For the full league season, Alaves is projected to earn about 45points and Atletico about 71. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Alaves a 20.7% chance of beating Atletico at home in the La Liga on 2026-10-11, with 26.5% for the draw and 52.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.6%), with average simulated goals of 1.03–1.75; the chance of both teams scoring is 54.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 12.6 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.0% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Alaves avoids defeat | 47.2% | |
| Atletico avoids defeat | 79.3% | |
| Alaves allows no goals | 17.4% | |
| Atletico allows no goals | 35.7% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
