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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 33 · 2027-05-22 15:00 UTC · Allianz Riviera, Nice
Nice
MonacoThese three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.
Why does Monaco have the highest number? Monaco currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Nice playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.17for Nice and 1.61 for Monaco. That makes Monaco the highest of the three result estimates at 45.9%. For the full league season, Nice is projected to earn about 37points and Monaco about 53. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.
The Open Model gives Nice a 26.4% chance of beating Monaco at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-05-22, with 27.8% for the draw and 45.9% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.17–1.61; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.
Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 13.2 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | |
| 2 or more total goals | 78.1% | |
| 3 or more total goals | 52.6% | |
| 4 or more total goals | 30.4% | |
| Nice avoids defeat | 54.1% | |
| Monaco avoids defeat | 73.6% | |
| Nice allows no goals | 20.1% | |
| Monaco allows no goals | 30.9% |
Forwards to watch
2026–27 squads · API-Football
