Monaco vs Paris SG prediction — 2027-01-30

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 18 · 2027-01-30 16:00 UTC · Stade Louis II, Monaco

MonacoTeam strength 1717.5 · projected league finish #5

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Paris SG

single most likely score: 1–1 (11.8%)

Paris SGTeam strength 1967.9 · projected league finish #1

Monaco wins 15.7%Draw — neither team wins 24.6%Paris SG wins 59.7%Average simulated goals 0.89–1.89

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Paris SG have the highest number? Paris SG currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Monaco playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 0.89for Monaco and 1.89 for Paris SG. That makes Paris SG the highest of the three result estimates at 59.7%. For the full league season, Monaco is projected to earn about 53points and Paris SG about 81. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Monaco a 15.7% chance of beating Paris SG at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-01-30, with 24.6% for the draw and 59.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.8%), with average simulated goals of 0.89–1.89; the chance of both teams scoring is 51.3% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.6	10.4	11.1	7.0	3.3	1.8
1	4.1	11.8	9.9	6.2	3.0	1.6
2	2.4	4.6	4.4	2.8	1.3	0.7
3	0.7	1.4	1.3	0.8	0.4	0.2
4	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
5+	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 11.8%0–2 11.1%0–1 10.4%1–2 9.9%0–0 7.6%0–3 7.0%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		51.3%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Monaco avoids defeat		40.3%
Paris SG avoids defeat		84.3%
Monaco allows no goals		15.0%
Paris SG allows no goals		41.2%