Monaco vs Le Mans prediction — 2027-02-20

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Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 21 · 2027-02-20 16:00 UTC · Stade Louis II, Monaco

MonacoTeam strength 1717.5 · projected league finish #5

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Monaco

single most likely score: 2–0 (13.3%)

Le MansTeam strength 1492.4 · projected league finish #18

Monaco wins 68.1%Draw — neither team wins 21.6%Le Mans wins 10.4%Average simulated goals 2.08–0.71

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Monaco have the highest number? Monaco currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Monaco playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.08for Monaco and 0.71 for Le Mans. That makes Monaco the highest of the three result estimates at 68.1%. For the full league season, Monaco is projected to earn about 53points and Le Mans about 28. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Monaco a 68.1% chance of beating Le Mans at home in the Ligue 1 on 2027-02-20, with 21.6% for the draw and 10.4% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 2.08–0.71; the chance of both teams scoring is 45.5% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4	3.2	1.5	0.4	0.1
1	11.7	10.3	3.2	0.8	0.1
2	13.3	9.4	3.3	0.8	0.1
3	9.2	6.5	2.3	0.5	0.1
4	4.8	3.4	1.2	0.3	0.0
5+	2.9	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 13.3%1–0 11.7%1–1 10.3%2–1 9.4%3–0 9.2%0–0 7.4%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		45.5%
2 or more total goals		77.7%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Monaco avoids defeat		89.6%
Le Mans avoids defeat		31.9%
Monaco allows no goals		49.4%
Le Mans allows no goals		12.6%