Inter vs Parma prediction — 2026-10-11

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Serie A · Regular Season - 6 · 2026-10-11 16:30 UTC

InterTeam strength 1888.6 · projected league finish #1

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Inter

single most likely score: 2–0 (15.5%)

ParmaTeam strength 1599.9 · projected league finish #15

Inter wins 75.0%Draw — neither team wins 18.4%Parma wins 6.6%Average simulated goals 2.23–0.55

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Inter have the highest number? Inter currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Inter playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.23for Inter and 0.55 for Parma. That makes Inter the highest of the three result estimates at 75.0%. For the full league season, Inter is projected to earn about 80points and Parma about 42. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Inter a 75.0% chance of beating Parma at home in the Serie A on 2026-10-11, with 18.4% for the draw and 6.6% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (15.5%), with average simulated goals of 2.23–0.55; the chance of both teams scoring is 38.6% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.2	2.4	0.9	0.2	0.0
1	12.9	8.6	2.1	0.4	0.1
2	15.5	8.5	2.3	0.4	0.1
3	11.5	6.3	1.7	0.3	0.0
4	6.4	3.5	1.0	0.2	0.0
5+	4.4	2.4	0.7	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 15.5%1–0 12.9%3–0 11.5%1–1 8.6%2–1 8.5%0–0 7.2%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		38.6%
2 or more total goals		77.5%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Inter avoids defeat		93.4%
Parma avoids defeat		25.0%
Inter allows no goals		57.9%
Parma allows no goals		10.7%