Inter vs Fiorentina prediction — 2026-10-25

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Serie A · Regular Season - 8 · 2026-10-25 17:30 UTC

InterTeam strength 1888.6 · projected league finish #1

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Inter

single most likely score: 2–0 (13.1%)

FiorentinaTeam strength 1670.2 · projected league finish #10

Inter wins 67.3%Draw — neither team wins 21.9%Fiorentina wins 10.8%Average simulated goals 2.06–0.72

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Inter have the highest number? Inter currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Inter playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 2.06for Inter and 0.72 for Fiorentina. That makes Inter the highest of the three result estimates at 67.3%. For the full league season, Inter is projected to earn about 80points and Fiorentina about 51. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Inter a 67.3% chance of beating Fiorentina at home in the Serie A on 2026-10-25, with 21.9% for the draw and 10.8% for an away win. The single most likely score is 2–0 (13.1%), with average simulated goals of 2.06–0.72; the chance of both teams scoring is 46.1% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4	3.3	1.6	0.4	0.1
1	11.6	10.4	3.3	0.8	0.1
2	13.1	9.5	3.4	0.8	0.1
3	9.0	6.5	2.4	0.6	0.1
4	4.6	3.4	1.2	0.3	0.1
5+	2.8	2.0	0.7	0.2	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

2–0 13.1%1–0 11.6%1–1 10.4%2–1 9.5%3–0 9.0%0–0 7.4%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		46.1%
2 or more total goals		77.8%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Inter avoids defeat		89.2%
Fiorentina avoids defeat		32.7%
Inter allows no goals		48.5%
Fiorentina allows no goals		12.8%