Espanyol vs Villarreal prediction — 2027-01-24

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La Liga · Regular Season - 21 · 2027-01-24 16:00 UTC · RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

EspanyolTeam strength 1629.5 · projected league finish #15

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Villarreal

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.3%)

VillarrealTeam strength 1759.3 · projected league finish #4

Espanyol wins 26.9%Draw — neither team wins 27.8%Villarreal wins 45.2%Average simulated goals 1.19–1.59

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Villarreal have the highest number? Villarreal currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Espanyol playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.19for Espanyol and 1.59 for Villarreal. That makes Villarreal the highest of the three result estimates at 45.2%. For the full league season, Espanyol is projected to earn about 45points and Villarreal about 61. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Espanyol a 26.9% chance of beating Villarreal at home in the La Liga on 2027-01-24, with 27.8% for the draw and 45.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.3%), with average simulated goals of 1.19–1.59; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.9% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	8.3	7.9	4.2	1.7	0.7
1	5.8	13.3	9.3	5.0	2.0	0.8
2	4.4	7.0	5.5	2.9	1.2	0.5
3	1.7	2.8	2.2	1.2	0.5	0.2
4	0.5	0.8	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.1
5+	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.3%1–2 9.3%0–1 8.3%0–2 7.9%0–0 7.7%2–1 7.0%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.9%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Espanyol avoids defeat		54.8%
Villarreal avoids defeat		73.1%
Espanyol allows no goals		20.3%
Villarreal allows no goals		30.5%