Como vs Cagliari prediction — 2026-11-22

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Serie A · Regular Season - 12 · 2026-11-22 17:30 UTC · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

ComoTeam strength 1760 · projected league finish #6

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Como

single most likely score: 1–1 (11.5%)

CagliariTeam strength 1594.3 · projected league finish #17

Como wins 61.2%Draw — neither team wins 24.1%Cagliari wins 14.7%Average simulated goals 1.93–0.85

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Como have the highest number? Como currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Como playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.93for Como and 0.85 for Cagliari. That makes Como the highest of the three result estimates at 61.2%. For the full league season, Como is projected to earn about 63points and Cagliari about 42. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Como a 61.2% chance of beating Cagliari at home in the Serie A on 2026-11-22, with 24.1% for the draw and 14.7% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (11.5%), with average simulated goals of 1.93–0.85; the chance of both teams scoring is 50.4% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.5	4.0	2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0
1	10.6	11.5	4.4	1.2	0.3	0.1
2	11.5	9.8	4.2	1.2	0.3	0.1
3	7.4	6.3	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.0
4	3.6	3.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
5+	2.0	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 11.5%2–0 11.5%1–0 10.6%2–1 9.8%0–0 7.5%3–0 7.4%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		50.4%
2 or more total goals		77.9%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Como avoids defeat		85.3%
Cagliari avoids defeat		38.8%
Como allows no goals		42.5%
Cagliari allows no goals		14.6%