Cagliari vs Como prediction — 2027-01-17

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Serie A · Regular Season - 20 · 2027-01-17 17:30 UTC · Unipol Domus, Cagliari

CagliariTeam strength 1594.3 · projected league finish #17

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Como

single most likely score: 1–1 (12.9%)

ComoTeam strength 1760 · projected league finish #6

Cagliari wins 23.3%Draw — neither team wins 27.1%Como wins 49.5%Average simulated goals 1.10–1.68

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Como have the highest number? Como currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Cagliari playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.10for Cagliari and 1.68 for Como. That makes Como the highest of the three result estimates at 49.5%. For the full league season, Cagliari is projected to earn about 42points and Como about 63. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Cagliari a 23.3% chance of beating Como at home in the Serie A on 2027-01-17, with 27.1% for the draw and 49.5% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (12.9%), with average simulated goals of 1.10–1.68; the chance of both teams scoring is 55.8% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	8.9	8.8	4.9	2.1	0.9
1	5.3	12.9	9.6	5.4	2.3	1.0
2	3.7	6.3	5.3	3.0	1.2	0.6
3	1.4	2.3	1.9	1.1	0.5	0.2
4	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1
5+	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 12.9%1–2 9.6%0–1 8.9%0–2 8.8%0–0 7.7%2–1 6.3%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		55.8%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Cagliari avoids defeat		50.5%
Como avoids defeat		76.7%
Cagliari allows no goals		18.6%
Como allows no goals		33.3%