Betis vs Rayo Vallecano prediction — 2026-11-29

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La Liga · Regular Season - 14 · 2026-11-29 16:00 UTC · Estadio de La Cartuja, Sevilla

BetisTeam strength 1747.1 · projected league finish #5

MOST LIKELY RESULT

Betis

single most likely score: 1–1 (13.2%)

Rayo VallecanoTeam strength 1707.3 · projected league finish #6

Betis wins 46.1%Draw — neither team wins 27.7%Rayo Vallecano wins 26.2%Average simulated goals 1.61–1.17

These three percentages add to 100%. They show what may happen, not what will happen.

Why does Betis have the highest number? Betis currently has the stronger recent-results rating. The calculation also allows for Betis playing at home. Across many simulated versions of this match, the average goal totals are 1.61for Betis and 1.17 for Rayo Vallecano. That makes Betis the highest of the three result estimates at 46.1%. For the full league season, Betis is projected to earn about 60points and Rayo Vallecano about 55. Read the beginner's guide or see the technical calculation.

Model reading — citable summary

The Open Model gives Betis a 46.1% chance of beating Rayo Vallecano at home in the La Liga on 2026-11-29, with 27.7% for the draw and 26.2% for an away win. The single most likely score is 1–1 (13.2%), with average simulated goals of 1.61–1.17; the chance of both teams scoring is 56.7% and of three or more total goals 52.6%. Estimates come from an Elo → Dixon-Coles → Monte Carlo model, walk-forward backtested on 913 internationals (ranked probability score 0.175 vs 0.241 for random guessing) with a public prediction record.

Source: The Open Model (theopenmodel.com) · probabilities as of the latest daily build · data reusable under CC BY 4.0 with attribution.

Possible final scores

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	7.7	5.7	4.2	1.7	0.5	0.1
1	8.5	13.2	6.8	2.7	0.8	0.2
2	8.1	9.4	5.5	2.1	0.6	0.2
3	4.3	5.1	3.0	1.2	0.3	0.1
4	1.7	2.0	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.8	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

Home-team goals run down the left; away-team goals run across the top. Each cell is that score's estimated chance.

Most likely scores

1–1 13.2%2–1 9.4%1–0 8.5%2–0 8.1%0–0 7.7%1–2 6.8%

Other match possibilities

Both teams to score		56.7%
2 or more total goals		78.1%
3 or more total goals		52.6%
4 or more total goals		30.4%
Betis avoids defeat		73.8%
Rayo Vallecano avoids defeat		53.9%
Betis allows no goals		31.1%
Rayo Vallecano allows no goals		19.9%